Solar and Geophysical Activity Report
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Aug 27 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1558 (N18E78) produced the largest flare of the period, a B9 at 27/0821Z. Three new regions were numbered: Region 1556 (S12W79) an Axx-alpha type group; Region 1557 (N17E38) a Bxo-beta type group; and Region 1558 a Bxo-beta type group. The remaining numbered regions were stable and quiet. Several CMEs were observed however none appear to be Earth-directed. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for moderate activity for the next three days (28-30 August). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active conditions on days 1-2 (28-29 August) due to continued effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. On day 3 (30 August), conditions are expected to return to predominately quiet levels. III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Aug 112 Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 27 Aug 124 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 007/008-007/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/05 Minor storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 25/25/15 Major-severe storm 25/25/05