:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
New Regions 1252 (N25E62) and 1253 (N14W12) were numbered today and
are Cso-beta and Bxo-beta type groups respectively. Region 1247
(S18W54) produced a few B-class events early in the period but has
since decayed to an Hsx-alpha group and remained quiet. All other
regions remained quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with isolated C-class activity likely for the next three days
(14-16 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled for the past 24 hours
due to residual effects from a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a slight chance for isolated
minor storm periods on day one (14 July) due to the anticipated
arrival of the CME observed on 11 July. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day two (15 July) as effects from the CME
subside. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (16
July).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 095
Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 095/095/092
90 Day Mean 13 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 015/017-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/05
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/05
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01